HOOP LOGIC with GOD FORBID’S DOC COYLE: NO WOLVES AT THE DOOR
In last week’s Hoop Logic Trade Deadline Aftermath super-special God Forbid guitarist Doc Coyle breaks down the many moves of NBA contenders and rebuilders. But as we enter the final month of the regular season — each team has around 15 games to play — our Hoop Logic focus returns to on-court action and the scramble for post-season position. Just days after the release of God Forbid ‘s newest classic, Equilibrium (get it), Doc returns to talk us through key injuries, record-setting coaches, hard fouls that (God forbid!) lead to serious injury, and more. The guy knows everything. Read on.
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ITEM 1 JUST SAY THE WORD: RU-RU-RUBIO
On March 9, playoff hopeful Minnesota Timberwolves took a brutal blow to the gonads when star G Ricky Rubio suffered a season-ending injury. Awful since 2005, his team had been heating up, but now has lost seven of 11 games since Rubio’s exit. What does the Doc Coyle crystal ball foretell for Minnesota’s post-season dreams?
DOC: There’s always next year. The T-Wolves were a bubble team all season, and with the stiff competition out West, the post season is always about teams playing well down the stretch. The loss of Rubio is just too big of an obstacle. And for a young team, there’s a mental impact of losing a star player. If their confidence suffers, they lose momentum, and Minnesota still hasn’t proven that they can win without Rubio. And don’t forget that starting C Nikola Pekovic — a double-double machine really solidifying their middle — has been missing games with a bad ankle. So they have issues besides Rubio that even F Kevin Love can’t solve, even if he’s proving to be the best power forward in the NBA.
Actually I was surprised that Minnesota did not make a move at the trade deadline to flip Michael Beasley or Luke Ridnour for a point guard to enable a playoff push. But it seems that T-Wolves leadership is being conservative and thinking long-term, which I suppose is smart. If they don’t make the playoffs, they get a nice pick in what is projected to be the deepest draft in a decade next year. They will have a very young core, and pieces if they want to make trades. If Rubio can come back healthy next year, this team has a very bright future. Rubio/Love could be the Stockton/Malone for this generation.
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ITEM 2 TOM THIBODEAU: FUTURE KING OF COACHES?
With a win over the Orlando Magic last week, Chicago Bulls’ Tom Thibodeau set a new record for quickest NBA head coach to 100 wins. Part of the second-year helmer’s success is his stock of top talent like G Derrick Rose, but still, many are in awe of Tibs’ smarts and leadership. Is he destined for the stature of gurus Phil Jackson and Pat Riley?
DOC: I wouldn’t start the Hall of Fame ceremony yet, but there is no denying Thibodeau’s ability to get his team to play hard for 48 minutes every night. The Bulls’ team defense is suffocating and unrelenting to the point that even on a tough scoring night, they give themselves a chance to win. Their 13-5 record without MVP Derrick Rose is a testament to consistency. It’s incredible. In one week’s span they beat East contenders Miami, Philly, and Orlando — without their best player.
He’s not of a Riley or Jackson pedigree until he gets a couple championship rings, but his chances are great to do that in the next few years. To me, Tibs is more in like Spurs head coach Greg Popovich: Each gets a crew of non-big name players to perform at a high level. Each is an excellent scout and can maximize talent; bench guys like John Lucas III come out of nowhere and drop 20 points on you. Same thing with the Spurs’ undrafted or second-round gems like Danny Green or Travis Neal who pop up and can ball for real.
I do have one gripe with Tom Thibodeau: He works his team so hard and their discipline is so sharp that, in a way, the Bulls’ regular season record exaggerates how good the team really is. In the post-season, the opposing team is playing just as hard, can scout you in a detailed way, and has the talent to match, so Chicago can be beaten. Especially when they are struggling to score. It’s not really a knock on the coach, but maybe an indication that he does such a good job in the regular season, he has overstretched the Bulls’ expectations.
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ITEM 3 FISH STORY
On Trade Deadline day, longtime Lakers G Derek Fisher was traded to the Houston Rockets, but chose not to report to the team. Days later, it was announced that he and the Rockets had agreed on a so-called “buyout,” and on Wednesday Fisher joined the Oklahoma City Thunder. I’m totally unclear on how this works: The Rockets expressed that they wanted him, but a player like Fisher can kinda refuse to join a team to which he’s been traded? And that team gets stuck with a bill and less return on their trade? Doc, can you shed some light on this?
DOC: Derek Fisher was bought out of his contract. The way this works: If a player in the last year or last couple years of his deal is dissatisfied with his team, or the team needs to waive him because of diminishing skills, the team and player can negotiate a buyout usually at around 50% of the original deal. The terms have to be agreed upon by both parties.
In this case, it worked in Houston’s favor in that they ended up saving half of Fisher’s pro-rated salary from this year and next year’s salary. They also save that money against the cap to the tune of around $2 million. I don’t think Derek Fisher is the player that puts Houston over the hump to make the playoffs this year, nor does he fit their future at age 37.
You see deals like this with older players who are much more effective on high-level teams, and some of these guys would rather retire than play on struggling team. Remember Chauncey Billups threatened retirement at the start of the season if he was claimed by an undesirable team, after he was amnestied by the Knicks? And the Spurs signed Boris Diaw last week after his buyout by the Bobcats, so this is fairly common.
There is a chance that Houston suspected that Fisher would do this and made the trade to free up cap space. Keep in mind, trades have to match money-wise, so this may have been Houston’s strategy all along. The Lakers should be worried though because Fisher gives OKC, their biggest threat, some championship experience. I can picture him hitting some big shots in the playoffs as payback for being jettisoned.
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ITEM 4 GUILTY OF FOULING BLAKE?
New Orleans Hornets rookie Jason Smith was ejected from a March 22 game against the L.A. Clippers for a hard foul on superstar dunkbot Blake Griffin. The next day, it was announced that Smith would be suspended an additional two games. Even Smith issued a lengthy apology, but is this punishment too stiff? Does it send a message, purposefully or not, that there are special protections for NBA revenue mines like Griffin?
DOC: Frankly, I think Smith’s suspension should’ve been for five games. This is not the NFL, NHL or MMA. NBA Basketball is not about hurting people. Every time a player leaves his feet to go to the basket, that player is in danger of having a bad fall or collision that could lead to serious injury. And if you haven’t noticed, I’ll tell you that these fellas jump really, really high. They come down hard, and can land on their head, back, or tailbone. It’s scary and plays like this make me sick.
Don’t get me wrong. I love tough, physical defense like the old Pistons and Knicks teams from the late ’80s and early ’90s. But there is a difference between a tough basketball foul while making a play on the ball and a move designed to hurt or intimidate someone. In the latter, it seems like having been outclassed, the fouler takes a cheap shot because he can’t compete on a level playing field. It reminds me a bit of that play in the 1984 playoffs when Celtics F Kevin McHale clotheslined Kurt Rambis of the Lakers. That’s considered a classic play, but I don’t think there is a place for it. What if someone gets paralyzed, brain damaged, or killed?
Players are tired of Blake Griffin dunking on them. Tough shit. Play better defense. It’s a pussy move in my opinion, and I think the penalties should be very stiff to discourage plays like this.
–Doc Coyle, God Forbid
Reach Doc on twitter @Doc4bid to shower praise on him for Equilibrium and to shower boos on him for y’know being a Knicks fan. Get Equilibrium here cuz it rips and see God Forbid on tour with Overkill, Diamond Plate, and Suidakra (dates here).
