Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Now Linked to 250,000 Covid-19 Cases
What started off a slow trickle of Covid-19 cases at the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota last month has slowly grown into the “super-spreader event” initially feared: a new study estimates that 250,000 cases of Covid-19 can now be traced back to the rally.
The rally, which took place in Sturgis, South Dakota in early August, drew more than 460,000 vehicles, but did not require attendees to wear masks or practice social distancing. It included performances by Buckcherry, Trapt, Fozzy, Drowning Pool, Quiet Riot, Smash Mouth, Adelitas Way, Saving Abel, and Night Ranger; video from those shows doesn’t show anyone taking precautions to curb the spread of the virus.
A mid-August report showed only seven confirmed cases of Covid-19 had resulted from the rally, but the numbers have worsened as time has gone on: a report at the end of the month showed that over 100 cases tracked back to Sturgis had spread across eight states, and a report last week by The New York Times showed the figure had shot up to 305 in Meade County, where Sturgis is held, with South Dakota as a whole reporting more than 2,000 new cases in the past week (not necessarily linked to Sturgis), setting single-day records several times.
The latest news is even worse. A new report published by IZA – Institute of Labor Economics traces 250,000 cases of Covid-19 back to Sturgis, and estimated the public health cost of treating those cases at $12 billion.
Charts published with the report compare the spread of Covid in the region before and after the rally, showing a clear increase. Other graphs detail locations of rally attendees throughout the U.S. and track post-Sturgis increases in those areas, too; again, there is a clear trend. The study used anonymized cell phone location tracking data to compile its findings.
What’s more, the study also investigated Black Lives Matter protests in the same ways, and found that the mask and social distancing measures taken at those events, as well as their local nature, produced a much lower increase in the spread of Covid-19.
The brief at the beginning of the report summarizes its methodology and findings:
“Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Between August 7 and August 16, 2020,
nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.” This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that (i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and (ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell. Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show
that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade. Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates). We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion.”
You can read the full report here.
[via Metal Injection]
