Into the Boards: Round 2 Playoff Matchup Analysis
Well folks, the first round of the playoffs is over and it seems like our time with the best game on Earth is winding down ever so rapidly. Over the past couple of weeks, we saw the Penguins spank the Jackets, the Caps overcome the Leafs (with some difficulty), the Senators topple the Bruins, and the Rangers oust the Canadiens. Out west, the young Oilers took out the aging Sharks, the Predators swept the almighty Hawks, the Ducks cleaned out the Flames, and St. Louis upset the Wild. The first round was certainly filled with surprises and a couple of fantastic teams exiting early, so let’s see what the second round has in store for us.
Eastern Conference Round 2 Matchups
Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Winner: Washington Capitals in 7 games
Ah, yes, the infamous marquee matchup that is the Washington Capitals vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins. We’ve seen this movie before- Alex Ovechkin and company enter the series with high hopes just to have the likes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin eliminate them and crush their dreams of winning the Stanley Cup. This year, however, I think the Capitals will get the monkey off their backs.
Now, we saw how Pittsburgh made short work of the Columbus Blue Jackets, cleaning them out in 5 games with 4 reasonably decisive wins. We also saw how the powerhouse Washington Capitals were humbled by an extremely talented and hearty Toronto Maple Leafs team that gave them a scare that had Caps fans saying “oh God, not again.” That being said, the Capitals did escape the series, they did play well for the vast majority of it, and they are still the Presidents’ Trophy Winners.
Pittsburgh has played remarkably well in the playoffs so far, but the Capitals are a much stronger opponent at virtually every position than Columbus (the only debate here could be goaltending, but both Bobrovsky and Holtby should be Vezina candidates). The Penguins are still missing Kris Letang, Matt Murray, Carl Hagelin, Chris Kunitz, and Chad Ruhwedel, but Pittsburgh has made a name off of winning while shorthanded. Regardless, I think that a weakened Penguins team will open the door for the Capitals to finally topple their arch nemesis. These Capitals are better than the 2009 Caps and the 2016 Caps that each fell to the Stanley Cup Champion Penguins in their respective years. Besides, how long could Washington’s playoff woes last?
It’s hard to imagine the Penguins blowing a series against Washington, but I’m sticking with the Capitals as my Stanley Cup winner. My gut says that this will be a long series, so Washington in 7.
Ottawa Senators vs. New York Rangers
Winner: New York Rangers in 6 games
I already bet against the New York Rangers once in these playoffs so it’s time to flip here and give them my vote. It pains me to say it as an Islanders fan, but I think the Rangers will end the feel good story that is the Ottawa Senators.
The Rangers are coming off a series win against the Montreal Canadiens during which they ended their Madison Square Garden woes with a couple of huge wins at home. The difference between this series and the Montreal series for the Rangers is that their lackluster defense is matched up a bit closer to the Senators’ defense which is also nothing to call home about with the exception of Erik Karlsson. Ottawa finished 22nd in the league in goals-for during the regular season, so they aren’t a tremendous offensive threat either, so I think with Henrik Lundqvist facing yet another lackluster offense, New York will be okay.
I don’t necessarily think this will be an easy series for the Rangers because the Senators proved in their series against Boston that Erik Karlsson can be enough to lead them to victory much in the way the Lundqvist can carry the Rangers. That being said, a goaltender is on the ice for the entire game and is much more likely to steal a game, so the Rangers will be in good shape if they can get halfway decent defense.
The difficulty for the Rangers here will be the way Ottawa’s playoff style of play will matchup against their stretch-pass, run and gun style of offense. The Senators are looking to bore their opponents to death with a 1-3-1 trap style defense that clogs the neutral zone and can make the Rangers go-to hail mary pass ineffective. That being said, the Rangers are a fast team and can likely retrieve some pucks behind the Senators defense and force them to play zone defense instead of counterattacking from the neutral zone. Again, I hate to say it, but I’ll take the Rangers in 6.
Western Conference Round 2 Matchups
St. Louis Blues vs. Nashville Predators
Winner: Nashville Predators in 6 games
Before the start of round 1, I (Vin) completely and foolishly wrote off both of these teams. Even moreso with the Nashville Predators, who I said had no chance in hell to beat the Chicago Blackhawks. I couldn’t have been more wrong as the Preds completely shut down and swept the Hawks in four games. Nashville has shown tremendous heart and have all the confidence in the world heading into round 2. On the other end of the matchup, the St. Louis Blues overpowered a Minnesota Wild team who had struggled late into the season and couldn’t catch their footing in round 1.
The key element for both teams is their men in net. Both netminders have been consistent for most of the season, but they set the burners to ten when entering the postseason and have been on fire since. Jake Allen of the Blues almost singlehandedly caused the demise of the Wild, holding them to just one goal in each of the first three games of the series. Allen sports a .956 save percentage heading into round 2.
Pekka Rinne also lead his team in round one, making one of the most feared and experienced franchises in the NHL look overwhelmed and unprepared. Pekka posted two shutouts in the first two games and allowed only three goals in the entire series. Rinne sports a stunning .976 save percentage and a 0.70 GAA heading into St. Louis for game 1.
Both teams need to be concerned with getting off to hot start and scoring the first goal. I think the goals will be few and far between in this matchup, so getting on the board early will be vital. Possession is also super important as a bad turnover in your own defensive zone can blow the game. I’m taking the Preds in 6 for this matchup. After seeing the way they shut down Chicago, Nashville could be my favorite in the West at this point. Nashville is riding a wave of confidence entering this series, proving they can play with plenty of grit and score upfront or from the blueline. Not to mention, if Pekka continues his stellar performance throughout the postseason, they could win it all.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Ducks
Winner: Anaheim Ducks in 7 games
This series can go either way, but I’m going with my gut on this one. I believe the Anaheim Mighty Ducks will come out on top in this one. After mowing down the Calgary Flames in a four game sweep, the Ducks are flying high and look to continue their run to the final. Anaheim was dominant in the closing weeks of the regular season and not much has changed. The Ducks have won their last eight games and we have to go back all the way to April 1st to see their last losing effort (ironically it was an OT loss against the Oilers).
Edmonton surprised many people when they beat the Sharks in round one. Given the Sharks are a great team, but they are aging and playing with battered and bruised players. A special shout out to Joe Thornton who was playing with a torn ACL and MCL. The Oilers are showing flashes of greatness with Connor McDavid putting the team on his back, with players like Zack Kassian and Oscar Klefbom stepping up and contributing offensively. Edmonton has looked stellar, but my eyes are drawn to their greatest weakness, which is defensive depth. Anaheim is a pretty deep team, playing with some of its best players on the third line. I can’t help but feel as it might be too much for the Oilers D-men to handle, putting even more responsibility in the hands of netminder Cam Talbot.
The Ducks should be getting even stronger with news coming out that top-line defenseman Cam Fowler will make his return to the ice. This not only improves the defensive depth of the team, but allows the the power play to get stronger with Cam holding down the point on the first unit.
Despite a history of choking at the worst times, I think this could be the year where Getzlaf and company break that streak and emerge as a strong contender for the Stanley Cup out west.
